Could Oil Supply Cause The Collapse of Modern Civilization

Crude oil and fossil fuels have been the key ingredient throughout industrilisation and mordenisation of societies and arguably the backbone of modern society we enjoy today - but what happens when they're gone?

Some, or most, would say good riddance and take your global warming c02 emissions with you! The end of the fossil fuel era would cure all of our pain over man-made emissions.

Sounds great but are we ready for it? Our civilization was built on these products, it was the foundation of our growth as a society and as still being proven today energy resources are the key to raising societies above poverty.

One of the key principles of the Millenium Project is to facilitate the supply of energy - "Energy is central to sustainable development and poverty reduction efforts. It affects all aspects of development -- social, economic, and environmental -- including livelihoods, access to water, agricultural productivity, health, population levels, education, and gender-related issues. None of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be met without major improvement in the quality and quantity of energy services in developing countries."

When it's the fundamental core of success and the creation and maintenance of prosperous and healthy societies have we done enough to secure future energy resources, supplies and technology? And more importantly to set in place the strategy to de-crude our modern lifestyles.

Yes, there is plenty of talk about global warming and the need for clean renewable energy but little talk about how to remove our addiction to crude oil. Hooking up clean energy sources to the electricity grid is happening now but there is not much movement on the massive societal and infrastructure change needed to move away from the dwindling supply of oil.

The automotive fuels sector alone is a massive energy demand powered by oil and you may say the electric car will solve that one but even if a radical plan to swap the something like 1 billion cars in the world to electric vehicles, that would take many years if not decades, still leaves the burning question - what on earth is going to supply all that electricity when we are yet to even supply homes in the effort to eradicate poverty? And that's just one of the oil dependent sectors of our modern lifestyles.

So are we heading for a civilization collapse? Already we can see the geo-political conflicts taking place around the world in the scurry for what's left of the oil supply, we can look at Chinas current fuel crisis and we can look at past events like the 1973 Oil Crisis to get an idea of the effects of minor supply 'blips'.

With the US still recovering that 'blip' in 1973 it was enough to see that alternatives were required. Then President Jimmy Carter addressed the nation on April 18, 1977 stating "We simply must balance our demand for energy with our rapidly shrinking resources. By acting now, we can control our future instead of letting the future control us." Carter also stated that: "The most important thing about these proposals is that the alternative may be a national catastrophe. Further delay can affect our strength and our power as a nation."

Unfortunately as the oil began to flow steadily once again and a under a new presidency the policies and projects Carter introduced disappeared.

We can also look into past civilizations and what they may warn us of:

Below is an extract from the book "The Coming Economic Collapse"

Michael Shermer, for instance, in a column for Scientific American, researched sixty civilizations, both ancient and modern. His goal was to discover the life span of the average civilization. For each extinct culture, he calculated how long it remained in existence. For those still in existence, he used their current age.

Shermer concluded that the average life span of civilization is only 421 years. Even more jarring, modern civilizations do not last as long as ancient ones. Among the twenty-eight most recent civilizations-those that sprang into being after the fall of Rome the average life span is only 305 years.

One reason may be that modern civilizations are more complex. By complex, we mean they have a well-developed division of labor, with most jobs requiring specialized skills and training, and that they have a hierarchical leadership structure, with various levels of government and other social institutions. Modern civilizations are also more likely to be in competition with other civilizations, so they demand more natural resources to sustain themselves and protect their territory. In other words, they are expensive to maintain.

Just because a civilization has been around for two or three hundred years, one cannot assume it will last forever. We have no special knowledge that tells us our civilization is more likely to endure than any other. The next crisis-which will likely be a shortfall in energy production-could be our doom.

The collapse of modern civilization would be a catastrophic event, far worse than the popping of the technology bubble. Never mind the financial hardship that would befall almost everyone-the end of our civilization, and its complex division of labor, would result in mass starvation and a level of violence and chaos not seen since the end of the Roman Empire.

If our civilization is to prevent such a future, we cannot allow the approaching energy crisis to catch us unprepared. We must discover the best strategy for preventing disaster, and implement it. We must learn the lessons of past civilizations-those that survived similar crises, and those that succumbed and try to discover what actions will help us survive.

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The book is geared towards the investor and written by a well respected economist/investor Stephen Leeb PhD and is recommended reading for the future minded investor.

There are also a number of documentaries on oil and it's dwindling supply:

We Were Warned
CNN presents: An hour long documentary on our addiction to oil and the vulnerability of it's supply.
Site: http://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/presents/index.oil.html
Watch Online: At Stage 6

A Crude Awakening - The Oil Crash
A 90 minute documentary on the planet's dwindling oil resources.
Site: http://www.oilcrashmovie.com

Crude Impact
Crude Impact is an award-winning documentary which explores the interconnection between human domination of the planet, and the discovery and use of oil.
Site: http://www.crudeimpact.com
Watch Online: At Veoh

China vs the US The Battle For Oil
The 50 minute documentary covers Chinas frantic search for oil and it's race against the US to secure their country's energy future.
Watch Online: At Google Video

Will 2008 be the year of starting the energy revolution?
The United States mentions energy security right along side climate change. In the National Energy Policy Increasing Domestic Energy Supply [PDF] it states "The shortfall between projected energy supply and demand in 2020 is nearly 50 percent. That shortfall can be made up in only three ways: import more energy; improve energy efficiency even more than expected; and increase domestic energy supply."

That's not far away. There are many technologies to watch in a race to secure energy supply including solar, wind, energy storage technology, geo-thermal and the expansion of nuclear and hydro. For automotive a range of options emerge including hybrid, flex fuel vehicles and super efficient diesel and on the horizon hydrogen.

Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Public awareness of conserving energy and becoming energy efficient would more than likely play a large part of progression. Energy efficient technology is likely to be pushed hard if not mandated and/or rebated and as the technology comes online many argue that energy pricing will need to rise to a level that pushes consumers into replacing inefficient technology be it the car or home appliance.

There's much to consider but what we do know is this - there is no time like now for bold investment and action on energy supply issues to save our environment, protect our economy and secure our energy future.

Originally submitted by: Sam Shaw